Energy supplementation of new energy vehicles and electrification of commercial vehicles

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's new energy vehicle market share will reach 25.6% in 2022, and the goal of reaching 20% ​​by 2025 proposed by the national "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)" will be completed three years ahead of schedule. .

As for the pain points in the current promotion of new energy vehicles, Yin Tongyue believes that energy replenishment anxiety such as low charging pile power and long charging time is the biggest pain point in the current promotion of new energy vehicles, which has hindered the scale expansion of new energy vehicles. At the same time, China's public charging infrastructure construction is mainly distributed in the economically developed Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other regions.

Yin Tongyue pointed out that the high-voltage super fast charging models have been partially launched in 2022, and will be launched on a large scale in 2023, and their short-term charging power has reached 360-480kW. The current charging standard used by domestic electric vehicles is the standard GB/T 18487.1-2015 formulated by the National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee. Its maximum voltage and current are 950V and 250A, respectively, and the maximum charging power is less than 240kW. It only supports backward CAN communication, and there is no interface reserved for expanding functions.

"And because the 2015 version of the national standard has safety hazards in anti-finger contact, it is excluded from the international charging standard and affects the export of complete vehicles; the existing problems have not been systematically resolved in the draft of the new standard." Yin Tongyue said.

Yin Tongyue also pointed out that the standard ChaoJi charging technology solution led by the China Electricity Council, led by grid companies, charging operators, charging hardware manufacturers, and some car companies, is code-named GB/T 20234.4, referred to as ChaoJi. "Whether it is hardware structure, software protocol, or the degree of internationalization, it has the advantage of being a latecomer. The upper limit of charging voltage and current has been increased to 1500V and 600A respectively, and the maximum power can reach 900kW, and it has already achieved international recognition."

"For car companies, charging equipment companies, and third parties involved in the construction and operation of charging facilities, different standards and solutions will inevitably lead to huge waste of social resources." Yin Tongyue suggested that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology should take the lead in unifying and upgrading the next generation Electric vehicle charging standards, and interoperability with international standards, allow domestic car companies, charging facilities and third-party operating companies to upgrade vehicle technology under the escort of unified standards, provide car owners with a better charging experience, and realize new energy integration. A breakthrough in the scale of vehicles will accelerate the process of national electrification and clean energy.

In addition to focusing on the charging standards of electric vehicles, Yin Tongyue also focused on the electrification of commercial vehicles. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of commercial vehicles have shown a downward trend since 2020. In 2022, the sales volume will be 3.3 million, a year-on-year decrease of 31.2%, and the overall sales volume is under pressure. Stimulated by new energy purchase tax and other policies, new energy commercial vehicles showed growth against the trend. The annual sales volume was 338,000, a year-on-year increase of 72.1%, and the penetration rate continued to rise, reaching 10.2% for the whole year.

Yin Tongyue believes that although new energy commercial vehicles maintain growth potential, there are still constraints that restrict the development of the industry. New energy heavy trucks mainly choose the battery replacement mode, but at present, the pure electric heavy trucks in the industry mainly use the oil-to-electricity platform, which has a low degree of specialization. At the same time, the industry battery standards have not yet been unified, and the number of battery replacement stations has not yet met the needs of the industry. "New energy buses are mainly used in urban public transport, and they still do not have advantages in road passenger transportation and other businesses. The short driving range and long charging time have become bottlenecks restricting development, weakening the competitive advantage of new energy buses. Therefore, speeding up the development of commercial vehicles , especially the popularization and application of heavy-duty trucks and buses, it is imperative to comprehensively promote the electrification of commercial vehicles."

In Yin Tongyue's view, the power swap model brings huge market space to the industry chain. Swapping the battery brings the vehicle-electricity separation mode, which means that one car with one battery will become a car with multiple batteries, making the power battery more than the original demand, ushering in new incremental demand in the industrial chain. "Taking the construction of power stations as an example, it is estimated that 22,100 power stations will be built by the end of 2025, forming an equipment market space of 38.3 billion yuan; it is estimated that 88,300 power stations will be built by the end of 2030, forming a market space of 109.1 billion yuan for equipment."

To this end, Yin Tongyue suggested that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions should speed up the construction of infrastructure such as special swap stations for commercial vehicles to meet the application needs of the swap mode. "It is recommended that relevant national ministries and commissions focus on application scenarios such as mines, ports, and urban transshipment to promote the electrification transformation of heavy-duty trucks and port internal trucks, buses, and other fields, and form a clear switching plan."

Proposed strategic layout of core mineral resources for overseas power batteries

The new energy vehicle and energy storage industry has experienced years of vigorous development. According to the forecast of professional market research institutions, from 2020 to 2026, the global demand for power battery capacity will increase from 145GWh to 2TWh, with a compound annual growth rate of about 55%. Among them, China's power battery capacity demand will reach 1.2TWh in 2026, accounting for about 60% of the global power battery capacity demand.

It is reported that although China is the global production center and major demander of the lithium battery industry, the upstream core and scarce mineral resources for lithium battery production are mostly distributed abroad. For example, the most core lithium resources are mainly distributed in the "Lithium Triangle" region of South America and Australia.

Yin Tongyue pointed out that although China has certain lithium resource reserves, more than 80% of them are distributed in Qinghai and Tibet in the form of salt lake brine. Due to various factors such as natural conditions, transportation, ecological environment, local religion and folk customs, and the low content of lithium in salt lake brine in my country, mining is difficult and expensive. "Similar problems also arise in terms of cobalt ore resources and nickel ore resources required for the production of ternary lithium batteries. Taking nickel ore as an example, the countries with global reserves exceeding 10 million tons (metal nickel) are only Indonesia, Australia and Brazil, and China The reserves are ranked seventh in the world. The global cobalt resources are mainly distributed in Congo (Kinshasa), Australia and Cuba, and there are very few distributions in China.”

"China's lithium battery industry chain companies generally transport mineral resources mined abroad back to China for processing and then sell and use them domestically. There are huge hidden concerns in this business model." Yin Tongyue said.

Yin Tongyue said that the upstream of the industrial chain is mainly located abroad, which is easily affected by international politics and the policies of the country where it is located. "The main source of overseas lithium ore resources is Australia (accounting for more than 60% of global lithium ore production), the source is relatively single, and the risk of industrial chain concentration is prominent."

In Yin Tongyue's view, many domestic companies participate in the bidding of foreign mineral resources or mining companies, the bidding process is disorderly, and mutual price hikes lead to high resource acquisition costs and boost battery costs. "There are still a large number of high-quality mineral resources distributed in Bolivia, Cuba and other countries along the 'Belt and Road'. Due to various reasons such as the nature of the country and weak infrastructure, they have not been rationally developed and properly utilized."

In order to deal with the unfavorable impact of the changing international political and economic environment on my country's new energy industry chain in advance, Yin Tongyue suggested that lithium, cobalt, and nickel be listed as the country's strategic reserve resources. Cooperation, on the basis of mutual benefit, to promote the countries where the resources are located to use the above-mentioned resources as development projects to attract investment.

In addition, Yin Tongyue also suggested that enterprises related to my country's industrial chain, especially state-owned enterprises, should be guided to actively participate in the development of the country where the resources are located and the cooperation of the industrial chain. Develop revenue and profit, create a good brand image and national reputation, and create conditions for sustainable high-quality development.

In addition to suggesting the strategic layout of core mineral resources for power batteries, Yin Tongyue also offered advice and suggestions for China's overseas export of automobiles.

The reporter learned that in 2022, China will export 3.111 million automobiles and import 877,000 complete vehicles. Automobile exports have far exceeded imports, and China has become the world's second largest automobile exporter after Japan. With the improvement of China's automobile technology and research and development capabilities, product performance and quality have gradually narrowed the gap with major competitors in the international market, especially in the forefront of intelligent network technology and new energy vehicles, and have begun to export to Europe and the United States. developed countries and regions.

Yin Tongyue pointed out that the governments of Japan and South Korea have signed free trade agreements in the countries where the main overseas markets of Chinese automobiles are located. Therefore, Japanese and South Korean auto companies enjoy more preferential policies, and their competitive advantages are very obvious. This has caused Chinese auto brands to compete in the international market. unequal status. "In overseas markets, when importing countries have the same tariffs on cars from all countries, Chinese auto brands have certain advantages."

Yin Tongyue gave an example. For example, in Chile, which has signed free trade agreements with China, Japan, and South Korea, the sales of Chinese brand cars will account for 32% of the overall auto market in 2022, and many products will enter the top 10 sales; The tariffs on imported complete vehicles in South Korea, Europe and the United States are both 5%. In 2022, Chinese brands will account for 21% of the overall auto market, a year-on-year increase of 4%. "The conclusion of the free trade agreement will undoubtedly provide better policy support for Chinese enterprises to go global."

Yin Tongyue believes that the current imported vehicles in China are basically high-end niche models. "It is recommended that the State Taxation Bureau, the General Administration of Customs and other units study further reduction of import tariffs on complete vehicles in order to strive for more mutually beneficial trade policies and reduce tariff barriers."

In addition, Yin Tongyue also suggested that the Ministry of Commerce and other ministries and commissions should speed up the signing of trade agreements or customs unions with countries and regions where China's main auto export markets are located, and formulate auto-related tariff policies, especially in the Latin American Common Market of the South (SADC). ), Mexico, South Africa, European countries. At the same time, promote the second phase of negotiations with countries that have signed free trade agreements, include automobiles in the agreement catalog, and speed up the process of mutual reduction of tariffs on automobile products.